The impact of the US government's about-turn on Ukraine and the North Atlantic alliance will be felt most keenly in Europe.

In this podcast, Pepijn Bergsen, Medley Advisors' macro policy analyst, and James Waddell, the Head of European Gas and Global LNG at Energy Aspects, discuss what this strategic upheaval will mean for natural gas prices and fiscal spending.

"Europe remains pretty burned from what happened with the Russian weaponisation in the first place," says James Waddell. "Most member states remain opposed to Russian gas coming back. Certainly, the [European] Commission does, and we're expecting next month the commission to start really giving teeth to its roadmap for exiting Russian hydrocarbon imports by 2027 ... And unless Ukraine has very strong guarantees from the West on its security, we think it will still be reluctant to allow a lot of Russian hydrocarbons to flow through Ukraine, given the fact that this would just be funding a future war chest for aggression against it in the future".